COVID-19 AND THE WORLD BEFORE, NOW AND THE FUTURE.

  I. The World Before

On December 31st, 2019 – New Year’s Eve – many had hopes and firmly believed that 2020 will be their year. Governments had already analyzed their budget and weighed the revenues against their spending. In our part of the world, other steps have already been initiated to look elsewhere to fund the budget – as usual – and 2020 as an election year leaves no doubt about that. It was a year that for the first time in 30 years, Liverpool would have lifted the English Premier League trophy and the most heartbreaking part is, they were just 6 points away from making that a reality. Businesses had projected their profit margins. Obviously, the world education also had its academic calendar intact – only to have these timelines squashed by a virus in less than 90 days. Who would have thought?

  II. The World at the Moment

Kids born in 2020 will see this world as normal. They would, I guess, believe that the world has always been in a hurry to overcome. They would again not question anything happening at the moment. To them, it is the world they’ve been born into. To those who can make meaning out of our world today, the world is on break. Everything seems to have come to a stand-still regardless of plans, policies and activities meant for the first half of 2020. It is a time where the world has been plagued by Coronavirus that has affected almost a million people globally as of the time of this write-up. It is a pandemic and the World Health organization was right with that. We are in unusual times where economies are crushing and now the priority lies in the number of citizens a government could save giving its resources most importantly, health professionals and facilities. The world today seems to care less about military might and the one with buttons to nuclear weapons on a desk. The world today has realized that it’s at war but with an enemy who took the world by surprise. An enemy, so deadly and scary. The economy and its growth are on hold if not at rest.

The world today cries out for Leadership and the least one would want to imagine at the moment is being in the shoes of a president or anything near key leadership positions. President of nations continues to fight the outbreak looking at all the options available to them. To be honest, this is not a good time to be just “a president”. The expectations are high from the citizens, the blame game is on and the political strings are being pulled.

What are the alternatives to government under such a life-threatening situation? Think of border closure, mass testing and lockdown, anti-social contact measures and the like and you wouldn’t be far from right. If countries are to take a cue from China, Italy, France, Spain and the United States, then a total lockdown of an entire country would be considered the most effective way of dealing with the crisis. The headache of a government in a developing country is the coping strategies of the majority of its citizens that live from hand-to-mouth, those who queue to access public toilets and other social amenities during a nationwide lockdown. Another headache is the regret of not locking down when fewer or no cases were recorded only to lockdown when 1000s of the population are affected by the virus. In such a situation, health officials and facilities would have been overwhelmed and lives would have been lost. At this point, they are not only considering a lockdown – it is the only choice. And the question is, why wait until things get out of hands?

For these and many other reasons, leaders are pressed between choosing the lesser of two evils and leadership is expected at all angles. Whatever decision the government makes, there will be consequences later if not now. The world today is looking for a way out of this crisis and if for unknown remedies yet, the world is able to defeat this biological war, how will life after coronavirus be like?

  III. The World after Covid-19.

The world before corona outbreak and the world after will never be the same. There will be fewer pollutions and lower levels of Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the atmosphere (Good news to the Montreal & Kyoto Protocols, the Paris Agreement and the likes). Oceans will be less acidic with improved aeration and enhanced marine life which will be protected naturally but for a limited time.
The price of crude oil was around $60+ per barrel two months ago. Courtesy corona outbreak and its devastative impact on economies, now a barrel sells for a penny less than $30. Why? Maybe some basic economics will break this down. China is the second-largest refiner of crude and if they’ve been hit hard by the virus with the aviation and transport industry on its knees, then it’s expected that crude wouldn’t command any valuable price at present circumstances. And oh, what’s crude if it has not been refined? Almost useless! But there is still good news for crude producers after the outbreak. Humans drive vehicles but Oil and Gas drive economies. After coronavirus, oil and gas will still have a relevant role to play.

Now let’s focus more on the future. Even if the virus should vanish today, the global economy would still appreciate some negative impacts. However, oil-dependent economies will be hit the most. A 40% drop in crude price will cripple governments budget and corporations will as well revise their budget – downsize where necessary! After the outbreak, the world will begin to work more closely, together and more connected than before. World-systems will change. How we produce, plan, transport and how we communicate will all be reviewed. Economic independence will be on the lips of fewer elite countries—if they are lucky to have a greater chunk of their labor force surviving. The interdependence of nations will shoot up more than the world has ever recorded in history.

Here is the good news for crude producers mentioned earlier. Nations will begin to rebuild their economies at a faster pace. Demand for crude will see an astronomical increase. And this is the point where crude prices will see a marginal rise. This, coupled will the increased demand for labor will give the global economy a boost. Production of goods and services will be expedited as the global economy recovers. Technology and science will continue to improve to develop advanced health systems and professionals.

Any danger ahead? A big YES! The quest to develop and bring the economy to its feet associated with increasing demands for energy and resources will not be good for the environment. There will be pressure on the environment which will lead to mass pollution. Without effective environmental regulations, the goal of Paris Agreement to keep global temperatures below 2°C will be defeated. This will further justify the need for renewable and alternative energy sources.

Coronavirus is indeed a threat to human survival but the world continues to hope and work collectively to overcome. The survival of the human specie must be in the interest of all who want to survive.